Leading Economic Indicators Up in July


Note: The tentative release date for next month’s report is September 28.
August 31, 2010 -- The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San
Diego County rose 0.3 percent in July. Leading the move to the upside were strong gains in local
consumer confidence and help wanted advertising. Building permits and the outlook for the
national economy were also positive, but to a lesser extent. On the downside, initial claims for
unemployment insurance rose sharply, which is a negative, and local stock prices were down
slightly. With July’s gain, the USD Index has now increased for 16 months in a row.
There have been concerns about a possible “double dip” recession at the national level and
similar worries about the local economy. The USD Index remaining positive suggests that a
downturn in the local economy is not on the horizon, but as has been indicated in previous reports,
growth is likely to be very weak. What is keeping the economy stagnant both locally and
nationally is a high unemployment/low consumer spending cycle. With the local unemployment
rate above 10 percent for 14 straight months and incomes for many households flat or declining,
consumer confidence in the economy has fallen. With confidence down, consumers are spending
less and businesses are selling less, which means that hiring is slow and the cycle is perpetuated.
Through streamlining their operations to achieve greater efficiency, companies have been able
(continued)

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Month Index % Change Building
Permits
Initial
Claims
Stock
Prices
Consumer Confidence Help Wanted Advertising National Economy
JUL   109.9    +0.3    +0.29     -0.92 -0.35  +1.28    +1.08  +0.18
JUN     109.6*    +0.2    +1.59     -0.58 -1.12  +0.44    +1.24     -0.53*
MAY     109.5*      +0.3*      +1.14*       -0.30* -1.09  +0.20    +0.81    +0.89*
APR   109.2      +0.1*      +0.15*       -0.61* +1.24   -0.92    +0.97    +0.00*
MAR   109.0    +1.0      +0.14*     +0.69* +1.97   -0.44    +0.87    +2.69*
FEB     107.9*      +0.2*      +0.85*   +0.69 -0.75   -0.64    +0.53    +0.72*
JAN 2010     107.7*      +0.5*      +0.98*     +0.32* +0.52     -0.36*      +0.41*    +1.09*
DEC     107.2*     +0.7*      +0.66*   +0.22 +0.39   +0.02    +0.38    +2.43*
NOV     106.5*     +0.1*       -0.29*      +0.67* -2.84   +1.16    -0.08    +2.08*
OCT     106.3*     +0.5*      +0.40*      +0.12* -1.31   +3.36    -0.41    +0.95*
SEP     105.8*     +1.2*      +1.39*      -0.24* -0.53   +4.95    -0.28    +2.11*
AUG     104.5*     +0.9*      -1.44*      +0.34* +0.77   +4.92    -0.52    +1.16*
JUL     103.6*     +0.6*     -0.12*     -0.79* +0.12   +2.99    -1.15    +2.73*
JUN     102.9*     +0.9*    +0.68      -0.45* +0.88   +4.65    -2.26    +1.78*
MAY     102.0*     +0.8*      +0.54*      +0.03* +1.17   +4.22    -3.46    +2.59*
APR     101.1*     +0.4*      +1.26*      -1.23* +2.33   +2.78    -4.49    +2.02*
MAR   100.7     -1.9*      -1.07*      -0.78* -1.28   -3.27    -4.65    -0.61*
FEB     102.7*     -2.5*      -4.85*      -1.55* +0.11   -3.60    -4.10    -0.81*
JAN 2009     105.2*     -2.1*      -4.08*      -2.38* +1.23   -3.07    -3.53    -0.60*
DEC     107.4*     -2.2*      -3.00*      -3.64* -0.67   -2.95    -3.02    -0.20*
NOV     109.9*     -2.0*     -1.98*      -2.39*    -2.45*   -1.98    -2.29    -1.19*
OCT     112.1*     -2.3*    -1.58      -2.56*    -5.45*   -1.39    -1.31    -1.37*
SEP     114.7*     -0.8*      -0.40*      -1.94* -1.19   -0.94    -0.54   +0.00*
AUG     115.7*     -0.9*      +1.07*      -2.19* +1.39   -3.03    -0.81   -1.75*
JUL     116.7*     -1.6*      +0.82*     -3.25* -0.58   -4.72    -0.74 -1.35
JUN     118.6*     -1.0*      +1.93*   -0.67 -1.34   -4.89    -0.78   +0.00*
MAY     119.8*     -1.1*      +0.43*   -0.82 +0.14   -4.79    -1.22     -0.19*  
APR     121.1*     -1.3*      -0.60*   -0.86 +0.87   -5.66    -1.70    +0.19  
MAR   122.7   -1.4    -1.96    +0.76 +0.10   -4.63    -2.57      +0.00*  
FEB     124.4*     -1.4*      -0.42*      -0.10* -0.54   -3.87    -2.66    -0.58  
JAN 2008     126.1*     -1.6*    -0.37      -0.79* -1.45   -3.19    -2.92    -0.72  
DEC     128.1*   -1.0      +0.78*      -1.41* -0.08   -2.61    -2.58      -0.14*  
NOV     129.4*     -1.8*    -0.55      -3.12* -1.27   -2.44    -2.38      -1.00*  
OCT    131.7*     -1.4*      -1.11*      -2.34* +0.44   -1.59    -2.39      -1.14*  
SEP    133.5*     -0.8*      -1.55*     -1.08* +0.49   -1.21    -2.26     +0.57*  
AUG    134.6*    -1.6*    -0.67          -1.36*      -1.14   -2.03    -2.08    -2.13*
JUL    136.8*     -0.4*    +0.03         -0.91*      +0.14   -1.20    -1.32   +0.99*
JUN   137.3*   -0.8*     -1.08*         -0.73*      +0.13   -1.57    -1.03    -0.43*
MAY   138.4*   -0.5*     -0.82*        -1.00*      +0.32   -1.14    -0.96  +0.43*
APR   139.1*   -0.1*     -0.50*        -0.64*      +1.12   +0.52    -0.90   -0.43*
MAR   139.3*   +0.1*   +0.39        +0.25*      -0.79   +0.37    -1.09 +1.14
FEB   139.2* -0.3 -0.84    +0.32      +0.35   +1.19    -1.62 -1.14
JAN 2007   139.6*   -0.3*     -0.68*   -0.13    +0.22   +1.20      -1.50*   -0.71*
DEC   140.0*   -0.3*     -1.67*      -0.40      +0.02     +0.81*    -1.46   +1.11*
NOV   140.4* -0.3   -1.50      -0.26      +0.06   +0.98    -0.88   +0.00*
OCT   140.7*   -0.1*   -0.83      -0.76      +0.48   +0.54    -0.28   +0.00*
SEP   140.9*   -0.2*     -1.02*      -1.36      +0.42   +0.09    -0.17   +0.84*
AUG   141.2* -0.6   -0.11      -1.63      -0.23   -1.19    +0.17   -0.70*
JUL   142.1*   -0.2*   +1.78*    -1.53      -0.37   -0.61* -0.19   -0.42*
JUN   142.4* -0.2 +1.70    -1.55*    -1.06 -0.06 -0.47   +0.14*
MAY   142.7* -0.7 -0.48    -1.45    -0.56 -0.39 -0.33   -1.25*
APR 143.8 -0.3 -0.81    -0.17    -0.05 -0.11 -0.12   -0.42*
MAR 144.2 +0.3 -0.11    +0.64    +0.48 +0.73 +0.07 +0.00
FEB 143.8 +0.4 -0.22    +1.64    +0.33 +0.62 +0.17 -0.28
JAN 2006 143.2 +0.1 -2.03    +1.31    +0.25 +0.60 -0.25 +0.83
DEC   143.0*   +0.3* -1.74    +1.28    +0.57 +1.24* -0.20* +0.41
NOV   142.7*   +0.4* -1.38    +1.19    +0.65 -0.05 +0.16* +1.81
OCT   142.1*   +0.0* -1.40    +0.87    -0.38 -0.66 +0.16* +1.54
SEP   142.1*   -0.4* -0.30    +0.47    +0.09 -0.80 -0.05* -1.53
AUG   142.6*   +0.1*   -0.30*    +0.93    +0.07 -0.42 -0.01*   +0.00*
JUL   142.5* +0.1   -0.50*    +1.51    +0.87 -1.00 +0.22*   -0.28*
JUN   142.3*   +0.2* -0.74    +0.84    +0.55 -1.76 +0.37*   +2.09*
MAY   142.0*   -0.1* +0.22      +0.50*    +0.24 -1.46 -0.30   +0.28*
APR   142.1*   -0.4*   -0.20*   -0.13* -0.60 -1.52 +0.01   +0.14*
MAR   142.7* -0.4 +0.70   -0.05* -0.43 -1.30 -0.01   -1.40*
FEB   143.3*   -0.1* -0.34 -0.28 +0.12 -0.43 -0.03   +0.56*
JAN 2005   143.4* -0.1 +0.61 -0.56 -0.55 -0.38 +0.64   -0.14*
DEC   143.5* +0.5 +0.70   -0.10* +0.99 +0.22 +0.66 +0.49
NOV   142.8* +0.5 +0.60   +0.89* +0.82 +0.64 -0.70   +0.49*
OCT   142.1* -0.1 -0.77   +0.96* +0.20 +0.88 -0.94   -0.49*
SEP 142.1 +0.0 -0.12 +0.49 +0.78 +0.37 -1.08 -0.49
AUG   142.2* +0.1   -0.22      +1.14* -0.48 +1.17 -0.69   -0.49*
JUL   142.1* +0.0   -0.95*   +1.05* -0.63 +1.47   -0.40*   -0.32*
JUN 142.0 +0.2   -0.64*   +1.80* +0.51 +0.15 -0.16   -0.16*
MAY 141.7 +0.4 -0.14   +2.23* -0.85 +0.10 +0.26   +0.81*
APR 141.1 +0.5 +0.19 +1.63 +0.26 +0.74 +0.28 +0.16
MAR 140.4 +1.0 -0.04 +3.28 +0.38 +0.56 +0.53 +1.47
FEB 138.9 +0.9 +0.38 +3.93 +0.12 +0.61 +0.27 +0.00
JAN 2004 137.7 +1.1 +0.29 +2.89 +1.15 +1.08 +0.28 +0.66
DEC 136.3 +0.8 +0.85 +1.07 +0.09 +1.76 +0.34 +0.49
NOV 135.2 +0.8 +0.22 +0.59 +0.59 +2.29 +0.38 +0.56
OCT 134.2 +0.3 +0.27 -0.71 -0.08 +1.45 +0.12 +0.65
SEP 133.8 +0.5 +0.18 +0.27 +1.16 +1.19 +0.09 +0.00
AUG 133.2 +0.2 -1.05 +0.61 +0.26 +0.76 +0.15 +0.66
JUL 132.9 +0.1 -1.17 -0.26 +1.07 +0.00 -0.38 +1.15
JUN 132.8 +0.0 -1.33 +0.32 +0.99 +0.08 -0.63 +0.66
MAY 132.8 +0.2 -0.27 -0.21 +1.27 -0.87 -0.97 +2.00
APR 132.5 -0.3 +0.72 -0.42 +0.77 -1.90 -1.05 +0.17
MAR 132.9 -0.1 +2.07 +1.33 +0.00 -2.69 -0.90 -0.34
FEB 133.0 -0.2 +2.38 +1.11 -0.95 -1.99 -0.59 -1.00
JAN 2003 133.3 +0.0 +0.40 +1.72 +0.02 -0.90 -0.89 -0.17
DEC 133.2 -0.1 +0.67 +1.21 +0.06 -1.65 -1.15 +0.16
NOV 133.4 +0.0 +1.63 +0.27 +1.41 -3.16 -1.09 +0.98
OCT 133.4 -0.8 +0.30 -1.13 -0.46 -2.93 -0.81 +0.33
SEP 134.4 -0.9 -0.18 -1.29 -0.66 -2.05 -0.23 -0.82
AUG 135.6 -0.7 -0.30 -1.74 -0.84 -1.51 +0.46 -0.16
JUL 136.5 -0.7 -1.25 -2.38 -1.56 -0.06 +1.33 -0.33
JUN 137.5 -0.5 -1.09 -2.13 -1.12 +0.97 +0.41 -0.32
MAY 138.2 -0.2 -0.62 -3.12 -0.50 +1.71 +0.31 +1.14
APR 138.5 -0.2 -0.25 -4.08 +0.47 +2.46 +0.39 -0.49
MAR 138.8 +0.5 -0.35 -0.14 +1.16 +1.86 +0.26 +0.00
FEB 138.2 +0.3 +0.12 +0.81 -1.08 +1.86 -0.08 +0.16
JAN 2002 137.8 +0.3 +0.98 -0.28 -0.08 +1.32 -1.05 +1.08

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