San Diego housing prices to reduce by 8.5% 

The economist came out on Monday and declared there will be a double dip in San Diego housing prices. They tribute this price reduction to the growth San Diego has had over the last 12 months. First, let's remember, no one has a chrystal ball... we just have numbers... statistics... and feelings. Here is some information from Fiserv.

Fiserv, which provides the data for the widely watched Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, said San Diego prices rose 11.6 percent from the second quarter of 2009 to the second quarter this year. But a double-dip is now in the works for various reasons. That decline would place San Diego as the 40th worst housing market out of 384 studied. No. 1 biggest depreciation market is the Punta Gorda area of Florida, forecasted to drop 28.1 percent from its second quarter price of $135,000. The highest appreciating market is the Kennewick-Pasco-Richland area of Washington state, up 1.8 percent from $177,000 over the same period. Increased sales in high-priced areas, such as San Francisco and Washington, as well as San Diego, helped push national prices up 3.6 percent in the 12 months ended June 30.

"Some of the largest declines in prices will occur in markets that had strong spring and summer 2010 price increases," said David Stiff, Fiserv chief economist. "This is because the homebuyer tax credit delayed the correction in home prices that is necessary to return housing affordability to pre-bubble levels."

"If there are no downside surprises for the economy or the housing and mortgage markets, home prices should start to stabilize at the end of 2011," he said. Nationally, Fiserv expects prices to fall another 7.1 percent, from $177,000 in the second quarter of this year to $164,400 by the second quarter of next year. San Diego's prices are projected to fall from $390,000 to $356,850 over the same period. By the second quarter of 2012, Fiserv predicts San Diego prices will be up .8 percent year-over-year to about $359,700. Fiserv bases its prices on paired sales of same single-family-resale homes over time on a three-month rolling average.

If you are looking to buy think of "negotiating forward"... On the other hand, if you are looking to sell, I suggest do it quickly as to not be subject to a possible double dip.